January 2026 Eric Campbell
2025 was a disorienting year for Canada’s net-zero transition. As we enter a new year, not much has changed. The forces that disoriented Canada’s net-zero agenda in 2025 will continue, and multiply, in 2026. From war and trade disruption to cost-of-living pressures and populist reflexes, from housing affordability and immigration debates to AI anxiety, job insecurity, economic uncertainty and national unity provocations, Canada’s transition to a net-zero economy will be competing for attention in a sometimes bewildering environment.
"The forces that disoriented Canada’s net-zero agenda in 2025 will continue, and multiply, in 2026."
For Canada’s net-zero advocates, it would be wise to let go of the past. RIP the momentum of 2015-2025. We find ourselves in a wildly different landscape – we could call it the “upside down” – which requires new tactics.
Here are 5 ways that advocates should re-orient Canada’s net-zero agenda and make constructive progress in 2026:
1. Demand more of the federal government
Yes, Prime Minister Mark Carney has been slow to embrace a bold net-zero agenda, but it’s a growing vulnerability for him. In 2026, he will feel the squeeze from within his caucus, where there are strong Trudeau-type climate voices; from within parliament, where the NDP (under a new leader) and the Green Party (ie. Elizabeth May) will command some influence in a fragile minority situation; and from the public, where polling shows steady concern about climate change. In other words, the Prime Minister will be looking for solutions. For net-zero advocates, there are realistic gains to be made from coordinated engagement with the federal government. Advocates should rally around pragmatic policy recommendations and invest in good government relations and communications.
2. But don’t fixate on the federal government
The ugly intergovernmental politics and the cautionary Supreme Court decisions of the last ten years should underline for everyone the importance of provincial jurisdiction. We fixate on the federal level simply because it’s easier, but much of the jurisdiction for Canada’s net-zero transition belongs to the ten provinces, each of which is typically given too easy a ride by net-zero advocates. Meanwhile, each province offers an opening to make meaningful gains in 2026. In BC, a fresh external review has highlighted opportunities for smart net-zero action. In Alberta, the oft-maligned MOU with the feds allows for a tighter industrial carbon price, should the Smith government be pushed to implement it. In wildfire-ravaged Manitoba, the province’s new net-zero plan is vague but shows intention. In Ontario, Doug Ford’s electricity agenda, currently over-tilted towards nuclear and overly permissive of natural gas, leaves an opening for renewables and storage. In Québec, a 2026 election has the potential to put net-zero on the policy agenda again. In Atlantic Canada, offshore wind and more transmission interconnections present a compelling “nation-building project” if advocates can get it over the finish line. Net-zero advocates should re-focus attention on the provinces in 2026.
3. Make the most of the current wave
The prevailing political and popular mood right now is maybe best described as Abundance meets Precarity. Neither of these moods are inherently hostile to the net-zero transition, although so far both have been wielded by opponents to undermine it. In 2026, advocates need to practice some Ju-jitsu by seizing this prevailing energy and re-directing it in the net-zero direction. In the same way advocates successfully adapted to a prevailing Affordability wave over recent years, we need to now sculpt net-zero for the Abundance-Precarity wave. The first way to do this is via the “nation-building megaprojects” agenda. Net-zero advocates should ensure this agenda is dominated by big green Canada-first projects that are red-tape free. We know how fundamental it is for our net-zero pathway to grow Canada’s clean electricity supply, and for that reason the best megaproject contenders in Clean Economy Fund’s view are major clean electricity projects – Wind West and the Eastern Energy Partnership, Indigenous-led grid interconnections in the West, and the Gull Island hydro project among them.
4. Prepare for the next wave
Net-zero advocates could be forgiven for pining for the days of old. Canada’s net-zero transition got a lot of distance out of the wave of political and corporate action between 2015 and 2025. While those days are long gone, it’s inevitable the current Abundance-Precarity wave eventually gives way to another. “This too shall pass” and all that. That may take until November 2028, or it may happen sooner as a result of worsening climate events, or as a result of any sort of unpredictable shift in the prevailing mood. Whenever that wave comes, net-zero advocates need to be ready to ride it. Work now on crafting the big-swing policy recommendations, strengthening the relationships with government and corporate stakeholders, and anticipating the narratives that will win the day when the next wave arrives.
5. Don’t stop talking about net-zero
Governments rarely do anything ambitious unless public opinion research shows at least 65% of Canadians support it. To revive federal and provincial leadership on the net-zero agenda, advocates need to revive public support for it. That will be difficult in this age of polycrisis, when Canadians are grappling with multiple threats, and when there is this creeping trend of climate defeatism. If anything, this makes communicating with Canadians even more important at this time. And that communication can be constructive in just about any form. Research from Potential Energy in the US shows that just hearing about climate change, particularly with the best testing narratives, can lift popular support for climate action by up to 20%. In 2026, every net-zero advocate should have a communications and content creation strategy. Let’s keep talking about the net-zero transition, about climate change, about a low-carbon and prosperous economy.
The year ahead will not get any easier when it comes to advancing Canada’s net-zero transition. Canadians will continue to be distracted, the issue landscape will get even more bewildering, and the remaining barriers to net-zero will harden. These 5 approaches are our best bets for navigating this landscape and reviving Canada’s net-zero agenda in 2026.
English 
French